2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Who would win a possible Trump-Biden Rematch? (2023)

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Biden: 43%, Trump: 46%

The Crowdwisdom360 system which we first used in the 2020 election includes publicly available polls, google search data, social media sentiment analysis, economic metrics, and any other datasets Read on.

With Joe Biden in office after the 2020 Presidential Election, the Democrats had all the power to script a new history for the United States. Instead, President Biden is struggling to overcome both internal as well as international challenges. Joe Biden’s Approval Ratings paint a Presidency in serious trouble.

Some polls suggest that neither Biden nor Trump should contest the 2024 election but unless there are serious rivals to challenge both candidates, they could become the candidates for their respective parties.

Table of Contents

Joe Biden’s Latest Approval Rating

President Biden’s approval has been declining since he took charge of the office. He is one of the worst-rated American presidents. Here are a few ratings of President Joe Biden

PollDateNet Approval Rating
Average of PollsOct 31st42.6%
Trafalgar GroupOct 30th39%
CBS NewsOct 28th44%
Rasmussen ReportOct 27th45%

President Biden began to lose momentum soon after the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal and his ratings got worse soon after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Inflation has reached historic levels with no signs of improving as the Oil supply has tightened post-COVID.

As per the average of the latest 5 Approval ratings, Biden’s Approval Rating stands at nearly 42% while nearly 52% disapprove of his Presidentship.

(Video) NEW 2024 Election Night | Donald Trump vs Joe Biden REMATCH

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Will Donald Trump win the Presidential election?

  1. BidenFlation: Americans seem intensely disappointed with Biden’s stand on political issues especially the sudden withdrawal of US Armies from Afghanistan and his handling of the soaring Inflation. His Approval ratings seem to be constantly around 40-41% since he took charge of the White House last year.
  2. Trump vs Harris: In case of a rare Harris vs Trump matchup, still Donald Trump would have an upper hand. According to the latest polls, he leads over Harris by an average of 2%.
  3. Betting Odds: Amongst American Bookies, the Former President remains the favorite contender for the 2024 Presidential Race. As per prediction platform Smarkets, there’s a 21% chance of Trump returning to the White House as president, while only a 17% chance of Biden and around 19% chance for Ron DeSantis.
  4. Comparative Approval Rating: Trump’s approval rating around this time of his presidential tenure stood around 46% while President Joe Biden has continuously struggled with around a 40% approval rate. With midterms on the outlook and many other economical concerns, this approval rate seems unlikely to improve. Therefore Donald Trump definitely holds a strong chance to emerge victorious in 2024.

Polls show How Trump & MAGA is producing cross-pressure over persuadable voters.
According to the latest polls released by Priorities USA, voters responded to generic ballot questions preferring GOP (44%) over Democrats (41%). However, when asked about Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) Agenda, the polling improved for Democrats with around 37%, while for Republicans it fell to around 30%.

According to Cecil, Trump and his MAGA approach are producing cross-pressure for persuadable voters. The poll results are also indicative of voters’ reaction to Republican extremism. Results suggest that such voters could easily be pulled to the Democratic side if Joe Biden takes on an attacking approach toward Trump and the GOP.

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Who would win a possible Trump-Biden Rematch? (1)

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Biden vs Trump 2024 Polls

President Biden is leading according to the polling average by a margin of over 3%.

Average of PollsOct 29th
Joe Biden43%
Donald Trump46%
Echelon InsightsOct 26th
Joe Biden45%
Donald Trump46%
Echelon InsightsOct 26th
Joe Biden45%
Donald Trump46%
Rasmussen ReportOct 24th
Joe Biden39%
Donald Trump47%

**This scenario may arise if Joe Biden pulls out of the 2024 Presidential Race.

DateKamala HarrisDonald Trump
McLaughlin & AssociationOct 17th42%51%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesOct 12th40%42%

Track 2022 US Mid-Term Elections here

2024 Presidential Elections Odds

Former President Donald Trump is a clear favorite on betting Platforms to be reelected as the President of the United States in 2024. He Leads the charts followed by Ron DeSantis and Joe Biden.

(Video) Will we see a Biden vs. Trump presidential rematch in 2024?

Joe Biden+550+600
Donald Trump+275+300
Kamala Harris+1100+1200
Ron DeSantis+350+350

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Latest Polls For GOP Primary

Average of PollsOct 29th
Donald Trump56.3%
Ron DeSantis31.6%
Echelon InsightsOct 26th
Donald Trump60%
Ron DeSantis32%
Echelon InsightsOct 26th
Donald Trump56%
Ron DeSantis34%
CWSOct 19th
Donald Trump53%
Ron DeSantis29%

Donald Trump vs. Ron DeSantis

YouGovSept 2-649%37%
PremiseJuly 15-1669%31%

Donald Trump vs. Mike Pence

YouGovJune 24-2765%18%

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Latest Democratic Primary Polls

AverageOct 27th35%13.8%7%10.6%14.2%
You GovOct 19th29%9%10%13%14%
Mclaughlin & AssociatesOct 17th16%6%6%8%
Mclaughlin & AssociatesOct 17th27%9%5%4%8%
Big VillageOct 7th44%17%15%20%
Big VillageOct 7th40%18%15%21%

2024 Election Prediction: Will Donald Trump run for President in 2024?

Former President Donald Trump seems poised to announce his presidential campaign soon. He has repeatedly teased a 2024 presidential bid on several occasions. In March he was quoted saying “The truth is: I ran twice, I won twice and I did much better the second time,” insisting that he had won in 2020 “And now we just may have to do it again.”. In another interaction with the media, he mentioned that he was “very close to making a decision” on another campaign.

No American President since 1892, has returned to the White House after losing reelection, however, Trump has plenty of reasons to believe otherwise:

  1. Lead in Primary Polls: Republican Primary polling runs favorable to Trump, it is clear that he has established sound influence over the GOP and remains to be a clear favorite choice for the party’s presidential nomination. However, there’s no confirmation for a Presidential Bid from the Florida Governor as he runs this year for reelection so it’s still unlikely that it would affect the Former President’s rerun.
  1. Biden’s inflationary Presidency: President Joe Biden is having a hard time in the White House, with concerns over Inflation his approval rating has been on a constant decline stabilizing at around 40-41%. American Political Analyst Stirewalt described Biden as kind of a lame duck because people in his party openly question not only whether he will run again, but whether he can. Although Biden might be expecting a rerun, his republican counterpart will have a lot of issues to besiege him in debates.
  1. Media Attention: Donald Trump seems to enjoy the media’s attention and that helped him a lot during his 2016 campaign. Although his social media presence has taken a significant blow after his accounts were banned but he still seems to be very much trending over his comments and remarks. The Former President is even referred to as a media magnet in the sense that his comments or remarks seem to dominate the newspapers and social media for the day.
  1. Swift Fundraising Machines at his disposal: Trump is known to extensively raise funds online by selling merchandise prominently through the red “Make America Great Again” hats. These sales fueled cash inflows and provided a great database of supporters and customers who would be easily approached for further support. This not only helps capitalize on his considerable small-dollar base but also helps by establishing a massive war chest. There is no doubt that with swift fundraising machines at his disposal and remarkable support from the GOP at the grassroots and institutional level, Trump’s Reelection bid would have no shortage of funds.
  1. Lack of Competition in Primary: According to the GOP Primary Polls, No candidate except Ron DeSantis is even close to Trump in polls, leaving the primary race almost decided if Trump chooses to rerun and Ron DeSantis is reelected as the Governor of Florida. A Clear GOP field makes it easier for Trump to focus his attention and Campaign resources on the presidential campaign for November 2024. Moreover, Trump himself seems confident of his nomination from the GOP, therefore making his rerun an almost surety unless there is any legal or health concern that prevents him to file for reelection.

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Trump Favorability

After over a year and a half of leaving the White House, Former President Donald Trump still manages to dominate the political headlines. Trump had left the office with one of the lowest approval ratings at 39% with a disapproval of 56%. And now even after a tough blow from the Jan 6th hearings, he remains the top contender for the 2024 Presidential Race.

His favorability polls showcase an average of 39% Favorability and around 56% Unfavorability. He’s been leading against Biden over the past few months more than he was for the entirety of 2020. The Former president continues to post the strongest numbers in the 2024 National Primary Polls. According to the GOP Primary Polls, No candidate except Ron DeSantis is even close to Trump in polls, leaving the primary race almost decided if Trump chooses to rerun. Despite continuing trials to hold Donald Trump accountable for the capital attacks, his strong grip over the GOP still seems enviable.

YouGovSept 2043%54%
Sept 1940%58%

2024 Election Prediction: Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party Nominee?

Joe Biden recently expressed his desire of contesting the 2024 Presidential election and he also said that he would be fortunate to face Donald Trump again in 2024. However, the probability of him being the Democratic party’s nominee is slim.

  1. Health: While public videos are not a reliable metric for assessing the President, president Biden has repeatedly shown signs of lack of awareness around him.


2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Who would win a possible Trump-Biden Rematch? (2)

(Video) Trump VS Biden Rematch | 2024 U.S. Election Night Prediction | Full CNN Coverage

2. Mid-term performance: Current forecasts suggest that the Democratic party will lose control of both the House and the Senate. This will make it difficult for President Biden to push his candidature given his historically low approval ratings.

3. Betting Markets: As per the prediction platform, Smarkets, around only 34% of the respondents or participants are positive about Biden being the Democratic Party’s nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. Around 17% of the participants believe, Kamala Harris could be the Presidential nominee of Democrats for 2024.

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Latest News

Biden vs Trump Polls: Latest Videos

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Who would win a possible Trump-Biden Rematch? (3)

Trump 2024 Polls: What Happened in the Last Election?

On November 3rd, 2020, the United States voted to elect the 46th President of the country. On ballots were the then President, Donald Trump, and the Democratic Party’s representative, Joe Biden.

The 2020 Presidential Election was fought under the fear of Coronavirus. Due to the pandemic, a record number of ballots were cast early and by mail. The election saw the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1900 with each of the two main tickets receiving more than 74 million votes, surpassing Barack Obama’s record of 69.5 million votes in 2008.

(Video) 2024 Election Prediction Rematch | Joe Biden vs Donald Trump (May 2022)

Biden received more than 81 million votes while former President Donald Trump received over 74 Million votes. Biden secured 306 Electoral votes while Trump could get only 232 electoral votes. With counting taking around a week’s time, Joe Biden was declared the winner on November 7th. Biden and Harris were inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

Biden vs Trump 2024 Polls: Statewise Polls [Battleground States]

Trump vs Biden Polls 2024: Arizona

Blueprint PollingMay 12-16, 2022
Joe Biden41%
Donald Trump41%

Trump vs Biden Polls 2024: Pennsylvania

PEM Management CorporationJuly 22-24, 2022
Joe Biden42%
Donald Trump44%
Blueprint Polling (D)Feb 15–16, 2022
Joe Biden45%
Donald Trump40%

Trump vs Biden Polls 2024: Wisconsin

No New Polls released in 2022

Trump vs Biden Polls 2024: Georgia

Polling Company
PEM Management CorporationJuly 22-24, 2022
Joe Biden40%
Donald Trump48%
East Carolina University (B/C)June 8-10, 2022
Joe Biden40%
Donald Trump47%

Biden vs Trump 2024 Polls: Michigan

Blueprint Polling (D)Feb 1–4
Joe Biden38%
Donald Trump40%

Biden vs Trump Polls: Google Search Data, State-Level Data

Joe Biden

Joe Biden
Joe Biden
2020 (Day
before the

Donald Trump

Donald Trump
Donald Trump
2020 (Day
before the

Trump 2024: Social Media Sentiment State-Level Data

Data for the states that were narrowly won by Joe Biden in 2016. (Last 7 Days Data)

(Video) CNN 2024 U.S. Election Night Prediction | Joe Biden vs Donald Trump Rematch

Joe BidenDonald Trump

The close States or the States where the Margin of Victory was less than 5%

  1. Georgia, 0.23% (11,779 votes) – 16 electoral votes
  2. Arizona, 0.31% (10,457 votes) – 11 electoral votes
  3. Wisconsin, 0.63% (20,682 votes) – 10 electoral votes
  4. Pennsylvania, 1.16% (80,555 votes) – 20 electoral votes
  5. North Carolina, 1.35% (74,483 votes) – 15 electoral votes
  6. Nevada, 2.39% (33,596 votes) – 6 electoral votes
  7. Michigan, 2.78% (154,188 votes) – 16 electoral votes
  8. Florida, 3.36%- 29 Electoral Votes
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